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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-09 04:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 NARDA IS BARELY HANGING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THE CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION MOVING INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WHILE IT SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS SOON...NARDA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/10. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS BECOME SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.1N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 16.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 16.4N 131.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 15.6N 132.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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