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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-09 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NARDA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A BIT LONGER. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT. NARDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WESTWARD. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1800Z 15.9N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 14.8N 133.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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