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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-10-09 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091443 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS. NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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