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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-10-09 22:52:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092052 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 NARDA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND IS THUS CLINGING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS FOR NOW. ALSO...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT NARDA HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A STABLE AIR MASS AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM... WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW ARE FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. NARDA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...ARE LIKELY TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN BY THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 15.1N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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