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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-10-16 16:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 161444 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The depression's cloud pattern consists of a recently formed cluster of deep convection and fragmented convective banding features around the outer circulation. An 0910 UTC AMSR-2 overpass suggested that the center was underneath this newly formed convective burst, which would place it a little south of previous position estimates and open the possibility that the center recently reformed. An expansive upper-level outflow is also noted in association with the cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity estimate remains 25 kt. It is unclear why the cyclone has not yet responded by intensifying in a large-scale environment of light shear, a relatively moist mid-troposphere, and very warm waters. Perhaps the structure of the circulation has been a limiting factor. Regardless, global models continue to develop a hurricane in the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within a few days. The statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is quite similar this cycle, though the statistical output is slightly lower than before as a result of the cyclone's not intensifying yet. The official intensity forecast continues to indicate strengthening at a rate very similar to the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is a little faster and just south of due west or 265/14. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a generally westward motion underneath a subtropical ridge to the north during the next few days and decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper- level trough extending from the U.S. west coast causes the ridge to weaken. A further weakening of the ridge after 48 hours should cause the cyclone to begin to gain more latitude, and an encounter with a more significant weakness west of 140W should result in an even more poleward track by 96 hours. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the left this cycle and is a bit faster, and the official track forecast follows that trend but is on the right-side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 9.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 9.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 9.6N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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