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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-07-26 22:48:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 085 WTPZ44 KNHC 262048 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin has developed sufficient organization to be classified a tropical depression, the ninth one of the season and second one of the afternoon. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt. Although the depression is expected to be over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the next few days, strong northerly shear should prevent strengthening. The intensity guidance shows little change in strength through the forecast period, and most of the global models show the system opening into a trough within the next few days. Based on this information, the NHC official intensity forecast shows a steady 30-kt depression through the period, but it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated sometime in the forecast period. The depression is moving to the west at 12 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-level ridge. This general motion is expected during the next several days, taking the system into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36 hours, and well south of the Hawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 11.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 10.9N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 10.8N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 10.7N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 10.8N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 11.8N 148.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 12.8N 153.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 13.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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