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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-07-27 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 594 WTPZ44 KNHC 270232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018 It has been difficult to identify the center of the depression on visible imagery since this afternoon, and microwave imagery from the SSMI and GMI instruments between 2300 and 0000 UTC suggest that the low-level circulation of the depression has not become any better organized. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, but Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that this could be generous. Based on an analysis from UW-CIMSS, 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression, and SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the shear will increase over the next 24 hours. None of the intensity guidance brings the cyclone above minimal tropical storm strength, and the dynamical models all indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure early next week. The intensity forecast therefore keeps the cyclone as a depression through 96 h, and now shows dissipation by day 5. Given the high shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it is very possible that dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast. Due to the uncertainty associated with the initial position of the depression, the initial motion is fairly uncertain but is estimated to be 265/13 kt. Little change has been made to the NHC forecast, and the depression is still forecast to continue moving generally westward for the next several days, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The models are in good agreement on the track of the depression through dissipation, and the NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 10.8N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 10.7N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 10.6N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 10.6N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 10.7N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 11.6N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 12.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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