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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-27 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 658 WTPZ44 KNHC 270832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The depression is not well organized at this time, with the center likely located between two unimpressive areas of convection. Microwave data also suggest that the circulation is elongated northeast-to-southwest, which is another sign that the cyclone is struggling. Dvorak classifications haven't changed, so the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Little change in strength is forecast due to moderate northwesterly shear, with weakening likely in a couple of days due to persistent moderate or strong shear. The new intensity forecast is lower than the previous prediction beyond 36 hours, and the cyclone is now forecast to become post tropical by 96 hours. Given the shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it remains possible that this forecast is conservative, and that dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast. Satellite and microwave data indicate the depression has slowed down, now moving westward at about 10 kt. This general track is forecast for the next several days, with the system gaining some latitude in the Central Pacific basin due to the orientation of the subtropical ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF models are farther north than the rest of the guidance, possibly due to slight binary interaction with Tropical Storm Gilma. Overall, the new forecast is not too different than the previous one, although it has been adjusted to the northeast at long range to account for the models mentioned above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 10.7N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 10.6N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 10.5N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 10.7N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 11.0N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 11.9N 150.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 13.0N 155.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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