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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-05 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 The system has not become noticeably better organized since earlier today, with a small area of deep convection near the center and some slightly curved bands of convection well removed to the east and northeast of the center. Microwave imagery also suggests little change in structure. The current intensity is held at 30 kt for now, in agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate for motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to be maintained for the next 48-72 hours. This should keep the system on a generally northwestward heading until late in the forecast period. By that time, the weakening cyclone should turn a little to the left following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and just to the right of the multi-model consensus, in slight deference to the GFS solution which is even farther to the right of these tracks. Since the system should be in a fairly moist, low-shear environment for the next day or so, at least some slight strengthening seems likely. Thereafter, cooler SSTs and increased shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above most of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.3N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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