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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-19 16:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 365 WTPZ44 KNHC 191455 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough. This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows curved convective banding features to the east and north of the center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output. However, the system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to move inland without significant strengthening. An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well advertised by the track guidance. The depression is expected to dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain. The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
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