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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-05 22:58:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052058 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better-defined today. The associated deep convection has also become more organized and convection has persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance, including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand, the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental factors. The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week. The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering. By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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