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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-19 22:51:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 699 WTPZ44 KNHC 192051 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong convection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the last few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little farther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed some 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops, and since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better defined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30 kt based on this information. The forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory. The depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall is expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the system comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States. This will not afford much time for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and within a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly dissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of the Sierra-Madre Occidental. The main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Orrison/Blake
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