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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-20 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 507 WTPZ44 KNHC 200240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Recent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the center of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern Mexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas. However, much of the associated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are not as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is already interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico. Since the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and the depression is expected to on Thursday. The main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and its remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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