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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-08 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081443 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Intermittent bursts of deep convection are maintaining the circulation of Norbert. First-light visible satellite imagery shows the latest burst over the northeastern potion of the cyclone with a partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 25 kt, and is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as data from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days, with perhaps some slight increase in the atmospheric moisture in about 24 h. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which should limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Norbert has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory, and very little motion is expected today due to a lack of steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through the weekend, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By late in the forecast period, the forecast track becomes quite uncertain, as there are now indications that whatever is left of Norbert may interact with a disturbance to its west. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, but is left of that track beyond 72 h due to a shift in the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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