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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-09 04:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090242 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert's satellite presentation has changed little in the past several hours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center, and the depression's asymmetric appearance indicates it is still experiencing southeasterly shear. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on a T1.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier satellite-derived wind data. Environmental conditions are not expected to change much during the next several days. Norbert will remain over warm sea-surface temperatures, but weak to moderate east-southeasterly shear will likely persist over the cyclone. Little intensity change is expected over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast keeps Norbert as a 25-kt tropical depression through the next 60 h, although minor intensity fluctuations are possible. Between 36-72 h, increasing deep-layer shear should expedite Norbert's degeneration into a remnant low, and this advisory calls for Norbert to become a remnant low at 72 h. Norbert has moved little in the past 6-12 h, as the large-scale steering currents remain weak. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should steer Norbert slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move across northern Mexico on Sunday, which could cause Norbert to stall or meander once again if it remains a depression. Later in the forecast period, whatever remains of Norbert should move westward as it becomes embedded within the low-level easterly trades. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly towards the left of the previous forecast, in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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