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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-14 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 142033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are clearly taking a toll on Norbert. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as Norbert has lost most, if not all, of its deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air drawn into the cyclone's circulation by a mid-level low pressure system centered to the west of Norbert. If current trends continue, Norbert could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Thursday. The advisory intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a 1750Z ASCAT-B overpass that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northern semicircle of Norbert. This is consistent with T2.0 subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. Norbert has moved a bit faster than was previously forecast, and its initial motion is estimated at 330/15 kt. The track guidance consensus depicts a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed through tonight as the depression moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid-level low. A slow northward turn is expected on Thursday. The NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast based on 12Z global model trends. Norbert will continue weakening during the next day or so in an environment characterized by 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear, dry mid-level air, and low oceanic heat content. The official intensity forecast shows remnant low status at 24 h and dissipation at 36 h, which is consistent with the consensus of reliable global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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