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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-15 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory. Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated intensity is now 25 kt. Further weakening is expected due to cool waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 hours. Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to its southwest as much as it was earlier today. The current motion is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected to slow down further until the time it dissipates. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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