je.st
news
Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-05-15 16:58:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151441 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||