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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-05-22 23:01:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222101 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 Corrected wording in third paragraph discussing SHIPS RI index. Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure well to the southwest of Mexico has gradually become better organized during the past 12 to 24 hours, and a 1708 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the system has a sufficiently well-defined center. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The depression has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest while located on the edge of a mid-level ridge extending west from Mexico, and the initial motion estimate is 285/3 kt. The depression is expected to remain just to the west of the ridge and to the south of a deep-layer cyclone centered over California, which will likely keep it in a weak steering environment for the next 3 to 4 days. In fact, the ECMWF model even shows the depression becoming nearly stationary or meandering for a few days due to the weak steering. The official forecast shows a relatively slow track toward the west-northwest during the next 5 days and is close to the model consensus TVCE. The depression is embedded in an environment of light vertical shear, which will likely support at least gradual intensification during the next few days. There is some disagreement among the intensity models as to how much strengthening will occur, however. For example, the statistical LGEM keeps the depression below tropical storm strength for about 48 hours. On the other hand, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 42 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds within the next 24 hours. With the RI index relatively high, the official forecast is higher than the LGEM for the first few days. By days 4 and 5, vertical shear is expected to strengthen, and the intensity is forecast to level off or decrease by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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