je.st
news
Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-05-23 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230237 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 The convective appearance of the depression is somewhat disheveled this evening, as the coldest cloud tops are located north and east of the estimated center position. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The satellite presentation, satellite analyses from UW-CIMSS, and the SHIPS model suggest that some southerly and westerly shear associated with a mid/upper-level trough well to the north is currently affecting the cyclone. During the next day or so, this environment should support only gradual intensification. As the trough moves away the shear should decrease, which should allow for more strengthening later in the period while the cyclone is over warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 72 hours, and has been adjusted upward toward the IVCN intensity consensus after that time, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The center of the depression has been difficult to locate with geostationary and microwave imagery. However, a blend of satellite fixes and continuity yields an initial motion of 290/04. The cyclone is expected to move slowly west-northwestward for the next couple of days, as a mid-level ridge to the east weakens and the trough north of the depression moves eastward. Through 48 hours the new official forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Later in the period much of the guidance has shifted northward, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, and GFDL taking the cyclone sharply poleward by day 5 as a ridge rebuilds to the east. The HWRF also shows a northward turn but is slower, while the ECMWF shows a much slower motion farther to the east of the rest of the guidance. Given the large shift in the guidance this cycle, only small adjustments have been made to the NHC forecast late in the period. The NHC track is close to the previous one at days 3 and 4, and has been adjusted a little to the north and east at day 5, but remains well south of the multi-model consensus at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 10.6N 107.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||