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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-06-07 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070242 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the depression is not well organized. Although there is still a lot of strong convection, last-light visible images suggested that the low-level circulation was separating from the mid-level center. The initial wind speed will remain 30 kt in accordance with the CI numbers from TAFB/SAB. Increasing southerly shear should cause the depression to weaken tomorrow. All of the guidance show the cyclone losing some strength by late Tuesday, and the official forecasts follows their lead. The depression is moving northeastward at about 8 kt on the east side of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. While a vertically intact system would likely move onshore, more guidance tonight is suggesting that the low-level center will stay south of Mexico. This solution makes sense since the low and mid-level centers already appear to be separating. The official forecast is thus shifted southward, between the ECMWF and GFDL model, keeping the center over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 15.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 15.6N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 15.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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