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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-05-23 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 Convective banding is currently increasing near the center of Tropical Depression One-E over the northern semicircle. There have been multiple recent scatterometer overpasses, with recent ASCAT-A data showing an area of 25-30 kt winds about 60-75 n mi from the center over the northeastern quadrant. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in all directions. However, analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest some light southerly shear continues to affect the system. The scatterometer fixes have helped pin down the center location, and the initial motion is estimated at 295/4. The depression is south of a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer trough over the western United States. While the large-scale models forecast this trough to move eastward, the subtropical ridge is likely to remain weak with the tropical cyclone remaining in an area of light steering currents for most of the forecast period. While the guidance shows a large spread, there is general agreement that the depression should move slowly west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days, followed by a turn to the north as a mid/upper-level trough develops near 120W and a mid/upper-level ridge develops east of the cyclone. The new forecast track is near the previous track through 72 hour and is nudged a little to the east of the previous track after that time. The track lies north of the model consensus through 72 hours and west of the consensus at 96 and 120 hours. The depression is currently expected to be in an area of light/ moderate southerly vertical wind shear during the forecast period. This should allow at least gradual strengthening, and the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. There are two potential, and contradictory, issues with the intensity forecast. The first is that the large-scale models forecast moderate to strong upper-level winds near the cyclone during the forecast period, especially after 72 hours. If these winds get closer to the system than currently forecast, they could inhibit development. The second is that the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a significantly above- normal chance of rapid intensification, and the GFDL model forecasts the depression to reach hurricane strength in about 72 hours. If the stronger upper-level wind do not impact the cyclone, it could strengthen more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 11.6N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 12.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 12.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 13.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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