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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-06-07 10:56:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070856 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 This morning's satellite presentation reveals a rather poorly organized, substantially tilted tropical cyclone with the associated shapeless deep convective mass displaced to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates. Strong, persistent southerly shear should induce a weakening trend as the system approaches the coast. Most of the global models indicate that the system will become a remnant low and dissipate in 24 hours or so, and the NHC forecast reflects this scenario. With a disorganized cloud pattern, the initial position and motion are highly uncertain, and are based mainly on continuity. However, the low to mid-level weak southwesterly flow produced by a shortwave trough over southern Mexico should steer the vertically shallow cyclone generally northeastward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the forecast period. The official forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global and ensemble guidance and is slightly to the right of the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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