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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-06-07 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071457 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 The tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated with it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern semicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning are the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still exists in association with the system. First-light visible satellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain ambiguous as to the structure of its circulation. The initial motion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north from that of the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear this morning. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation should likely prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.3N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.7N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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