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Tropical Depression Octave Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-10-19 16:58:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191458 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Octave's last bit of deep convection dissipated about 6 hours ago, around 0900 UTC, leaving the cyclone as a swirl of low-level clouds. The maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on the CI number from TAFB. Octave could still produce intermittent bursts of convection during the next several days, but increased shear and a dry air mass with mid-level relative humidities of 30-40 percent are likely to keep the activity from being persistent or well organized. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, then Octave would be declared a remnant low later today. The cyclone's maximum winds should decrease a little more in the short term, but the remnant low is likely to persist near the Intertropical Convergence Zone for the entire 5-day forecast period. Octave is moving slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 kt. The depression is caught in a weak steering pattern, and it is likely to meander around for the next 5 days, never reaching speeds any higher than about 3 kt. No significant changes to the NHC track forecast were made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 11.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 11.3N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 10.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 11.4N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 12.5N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 12.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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