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Tropical Depression Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-09-11 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus aids. A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone. The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in 12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual dissipation over the open east Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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