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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022038 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar's cloud pattern is rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has become quite ill-defined. This morning's METOP-A/B scatterometer passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of the center and it's reasonable to determine that those winds are no longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than Saturday evening. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt, within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward. Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 36.1N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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