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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-05-11 04:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong convection to the northeast of the center even though it is encountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The continued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level trough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast this trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing the cyclone to even stronger shear. Based on this, the intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for the system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less than 24 h. One small change from the previous forecast is to keep the system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the dynamical model guidance. The initial motion is 295/8. Through its lifetime, the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the western end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in forward speed. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies a little to the east of the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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