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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-05-11 10:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110842 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018 West-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the depression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the main cluster of deep convection during the past few hours. Despite the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. Since the shear is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more difficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection near its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. The remnant low should then dissipate in about 3 days. The depression has been moving due westward during the past few hours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. The cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its northwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down during the next couple of days. The updated NHC forecast track has been adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for the recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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