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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-04-26 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Deep convection has increased a little in association with Tropical Depression One-E during the past several hours. However, visible satellite images and an AMSR2 microwave pass from a few hours ago indicate that the low-level center is displaced to the northwest of the main area of showers and thunderstorms. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, following the Dvorak classification from TAFB. This estimate is also in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS ADT and SATCON. It is also worth noting that dry air is wrapping into the circulation of the depression, which is likely limiting its convective organization. Although some very short-term strengthening can't be ruled out and it is possible that the cyclone could briefly become a tropical storm, weakening should begin on Sunday. The system will be moving into an environment of strong westerly shear, drier air, and progressively cooler waters. These conditions should cause the system to become a remnant low by Sunday night, when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt and SSTs around 24 C beneath the cyclone. All of the models show the the depression dissipating entirely early next week. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier today. The depression is currently moving northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it expected to move westward in the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.8N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
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