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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-10-24 16:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Patricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central Mexico. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of the surface center, and there is little organized convection associated with the cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based mainly on surface observations, and this could be generous. Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or trough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into northeastern Mexico. A low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the system forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along with the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details on this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 23.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 26.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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