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Tropical Depression RICK Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-11-22 15:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221445 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015 Dry air and southwesterly shear has taken its toll on the tropical cyclone since yesterday. Deep convection associated with Rick has become well separated from the low-level center and diminished overnight, with the tropical cyclone becoming a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB. Increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing sea surface temperatures are expected to cause the cyclone to spin down during the next couple of days, and Rick is forecast to become a remnant low later today. The remnant circulation should dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Rick is moving northwestward or 305/8 kt. The cyclone is predicted to turn north-northwestward and northward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it is steered between a shortwave trough to its west and a low- to mid-level ridge over western Mexico. After that time, the low-level steering currents are expected to weaken, and the remnant low should become nearly stationary. The updated NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 19.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 21.0N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 119.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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