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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-09-28 16:43:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281443 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 Roslyn has been weakening. Deep convection associated with the cyclone dissipated late yesterday, and only a few puffs of new convection have redeveloped but are well removed to the northeast of the center. A TAFB Dvorak CI of 2.0 is used to lower the initial intensity to 30 kt, and assumes some spin-down of the vortex since the overnight ASCAT pass that showed 35-kt winds. With southwesterly shear of around 30 kt, increasing atmospheric stability and an extremely dry environment, and much cooler waters along the path of the cyclone, further weakening is likely. Roslyn is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and the current intensity forecast is in good agreement with the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 035/09, though the shorter-term motion may be a bit more to the left. To the extent that Roslyn remains a coupled cyclone, the motion should gradually turn northward today around a cut-off low well southwest of the California coast. A turn toward the northwest is expected once the cyclone become a shallower feature, and its motion is governed by the low-level flow. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and is close to a multi-model consensus without the GFDL model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 21.0N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 21.9N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z 22.9N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 23.6N 117.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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