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Tropical Depression Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170838 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 Although Raymond continues to produce clusters of deep convection to the east and northeast of its center, the convection is not well organized and there is no evidence of banding features. A recent ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the circulation has become elongated from north to south and that the maximum winds have decreased to around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has already increased over the cyclone and the shear is expected to become quite strong within the next 24 hours. As a result, weakening is anticipated and Raymond is likely to become a remnant low later today or tonight. The circulation is forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours when it moves near Baja California. Raymond is now moving northward around 8 kt. A deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula should steer Raymond northward to north-northeastward at a faster forward speed today. After that time, Raymond or its remnants are forecast to turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it is absorbed into the aforementioned trough. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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