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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-25 04:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013 800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER SUGGESTING AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO LATE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.9N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 21.0N 147.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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