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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-15 16:58:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151458 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 The eastern North Pacific July tropical cyclone outbreak continues. Visible satellite and overnight ASCAT data indicate that the large low pressure area located southwest of the coast of Mexico has acquired a well-defined circulation and enough convective banding to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. This marks the fifth tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Pacific this month. The earlier ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, and this is the basis for the initial wind speed of 30 kt. The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low-shear environment during the next few days, but the large size and current lack of inner-core convection will likely result in only gradual strengthening through tonight. After that time, steady strengthening is forecast, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by early Saturday, and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days. After that time, the system is expected to move over water that has been cooled by the previous couple of hurricanes, and only a little additional intensification is predicted. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the SHIPS guidance, and follows the multi-model intensity consensus closely. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. A climatological west-northwestward heading is forecast through the entire forecast period, to the south of a strong mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 14.8N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 16.8N 116.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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