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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-09-11 17:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111534 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 First-light visible satellite imagery and microwave data suggest that the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized. Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.0/30 kt, and thus the system is being upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E at this time. The best guess on the initial motion is 340/11. The depression is forecast to continue north-northwestward or northward with a significant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours as it moves along the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an increase in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated into the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east. A motion south of east is even possible prior to dissipation. The NHC forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope but not too far from the multi-model consensus TVCN. While the depression could strengthen a little and become a tropical storm in the short term, opposing low- and upper-level flow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours or so. Global models show the depression losing its identity in 2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system remains a coherent feature through at least day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the multi-model consensus out to 24 hours and near it beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1530Z 16.1N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 16.7N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.3N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.3N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 14.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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