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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-09-13 22:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132042 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Ragged convection has persisted near the center of the depression since the previous advisory, and a 1748 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed still showed a well-defined low-level circulation and three 28-kt surface wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant. Therefore, an initial intensity of 30 kt is being maintained for this advisory, which is supported by a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is toward the southeast or 120/06 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The depression is expected to gradually turn toward the east over the next 12-24 hours as the small cyclone comes under the influence of increasing westerly flow on the south side of Hurricane Odile, and be absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile by 72 hours. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus model TCVE. Northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to steadily increase throughout the forecast period owing to the strong outflow from Hurricane Odile. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the ICON consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 15.7N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE $$ Forecaster Stewart
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