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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-11 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112040 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Satellite imagery suggests that the depression has become somewhat less organized since this morning. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed, and the depression's center is nearly exposed on the northern edge of the main convective mass. Low-cloud motions also indicate that depression's circulation remains rather elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with the 1800 UTC satellite classification from TAFB. The depression should struggle to survive during the next few days. Moderate northeasterly shear should persist over the cyclone in the short term, making any significant intensification unlikely. In about a day or so, the depression should become embedded in an environment of low- to mid-level westerly flow and easterlies aloft, which should induce a stronger easterly shear. The forecast shear could be enough to cause the cyclone to shear apart, and remnant low status is now indicated in 48 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is slightly lower than the previous one and no longer shows the depression reaching tropical storm strength, in accordance with the latest multi-model consensus IVCN. Based on the latest fixes, the center of the depression was relocated a little farther west than in previous advisory. The depression is moving north-northwestward, or 335/07, around the northwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge. As the cyclone moves into a col region during the next 12 to 24 hours, the track should bend northward and northeastward while the forward speed decreases considerably. Global models then show the depression accelerating on a general eastward course toward the large and intensifying circulation of Odile. The same guidance shows the depression either being absorbed by Odile or succumbing to prohibitively high wind shear and losing its identity in 2-3 days. The track forecast is similar to but just a tad to the right of the previous one, close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.3N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.8N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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