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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-21 10:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210858 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E moved inland a little before 0600 UTC over the south-central portion of the Baja California peninsula with estimated maximum winds of about 30 kt. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 0400 and 0500 UTC showed a narrow swath of southeasterly winds of 35-40 kt over the Gulf of California well to the northeast of the circulation center. These winds were likely being enhanced by the local terrain and may not directly be associated with the depression. The cyclone is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, but this activity is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the circulation due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. It appears that the low- and mid-level centers of the system have separated, and since even stronger shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico is expected, weakening is forecast. The depression will likely become a remnant low or dissipate entirely in about 24 hours when it is forecast to be over the southwestern United States. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 15 kt, embedded in the flow between a mid-level high pressure system over Mexico and a cut off low well to the west of Baja California. This general motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The main hazard from the depression is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico. Portions of these areas could receive rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible during the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.7N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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