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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-21 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 GOES-15 shortwave I/R and first visible images show that the depression made landfall just to the northwest of Bahia Kino in the Mexican state of Sonora. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the subjective intensity estimates and surface observations along the coast of the Gulf of California. Weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves further inland, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area, or possibly dissipate, later today. The depression is moving north-northeastward and a little faster now, about 16 kt, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory and is nudged toward the multi-model consensus TVCX. The main hazard from the depression continues to be heavy rainfall produced by the deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the surface circulation. The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula, the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora, and Arizona and New Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected over portions of southern California through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 29.2N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 31.7N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 34.6N 109.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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