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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-09-12 16:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 CORRECTED SPELLING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH. The center of the tropical cyclone is very difficult to find on geostationary images, but an SSMI image from 1056 UTC indicated that it continued to be located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection. However, first-light visible pictures suggest that the low-level circulation is poorly defined. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, although this may be generous. The unfavorable influence of the much larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile, centered about 800 n mi to the east of the depression, should prevent significant strengthening. As in our previous forecast reasoning, it is expected that the depression will dissipate in a few days, if not sooner, by being absorbed by Odile. This is similar to the previous NHC forecast. Given the difficulty in fixing the center, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 360/2 kt. An eastward motion is likely to commence within a day or so while the tropical cyclone begins to become entrained into Odile's circulation. Some increase in forward speed is likely in a couple of days as Odile exerts an increasing influence on the steering of the depression. The latest official forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks, with the former showing a more eastward motion and the latter significantly slower. This is somewhat slower than the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.6N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.2N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.0N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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