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Tropical Depression SONIA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-11-04 09:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040835 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500 UTC...AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME. NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED INLAND...SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW POSITION...SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE IT REACHED LAND...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT. AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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