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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-14 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Deep convection associated with the depression has decreased substantially since the last advisory, particularly during the last 3 hours. At 00Z, microwave, visible, and IR imagery showed the depression had a small but well-defined center with a small area of deep convection west of its center. Most satellite-based intensity estimates at that time were 35 kt, which would typically support naming the system as a tropical storm. Since that time, however, it appears that nearly all of the deep convection has dissipated and it is likely that the intensity estimates would be lower if they were valid now. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory, but it is certainly possible that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. The NHC forecast is largely unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to move generally westward for the next day or two, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north and low-level easterly flow. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but significant strengthening is not expected. An increase of southwesterly shear and cool SSTs should cause the cyclone to become a remnant low and then dissipate within about 3 days. The track and intensity guidance is all in good agreement and confidence in the NHC forecast is fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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