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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-14 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140832 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 Satellite images show that the center of the tropical depression is exposed well to the east-northeast of its decaying mid-level circulation and any scant remaining convection. A pair of recent scatterometer passes indicate that the current wind speed is not more than 25 kt, so that value is used for this advisory. While the system still has a day or so of marginally conducive environmental conditions, the current displacement of the low- and mid-level centers suggests that the depression is unlikely to strengthen. Thus, little change in intensity is forecast through today, and some weakening is likely on Wednesday and Thursday as the cyclone encounters cooler water and higher shear. The timing of remnant low status has been moved to Wednesday since the small, poorly organized depression is expected to fall apart quickly in a more hostile environment. The cyclone continues moving westward and is forecast to move a little faster in that general direction by late today due to the effects of a strong ridge. The most significant change to the forecast is that almost all of the guidance is north of the previous model cycle, so the NHC track prediction is shifted in that direction. None of the models show a closed low after 48 hours, so dissipation is shown after that time, which makes sense given the expected fragility of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.2N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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