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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-14 16:38:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 802 WTPZ41 KNHC 141438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the southwest of the low-level center. However, with no appreciable change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25 kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data. The depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24 hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection. The updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours. Another scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model guidance. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models. Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast ending up a bit north of the previous forecast. The depression and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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