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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-08-22 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with scatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past several hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near the well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is supported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT overpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has been expanding. The initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix positions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico throughout the forecast period. This is due to a strong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and northern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE. The cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic and oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The official intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as aggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category 4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the intensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in 48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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