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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-06-24 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE...WITH A LACK OF WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY HINDERING THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODEL SOLUTIONS. INTERESTINGLY...THE DSHIPS FORECAST CALLS FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS THAN DOES LGEM. BY 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. CENTER FIXES HAVE SIGNIFICANT SCATTER BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 13.5N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.2N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.0N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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