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Tropical Depression TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-10-18 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182031 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Radar from Acapulco, surface observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the circulation of Trudy is becoming disrupted by the high terrain. While no direct measure of its intensity is available, a reasonable spin down of the peak winds suggest about 30 kt at the advisory time. As the center will remain inland over high terrain for the next day or so, Trudy should become a remnant low shortly and then dissipate. Trudy has been moving north-northeastward at about 5 kt, though the initial position is quite uncertain. The low-level steering currents become very weak and track guidance shows little motion during the next 24 hours or so. Thus the NHC track forecast calls for little motion until dissipation. Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to remain nearly stationary, torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.2N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0600Z 17.3N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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