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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35 kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and these are presumed to be rain-contaminated. The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period. Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to move very slowly during the 3-5 day period. Once the steering flow becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone will move very little during that time. The official forecast track splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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